Reports / analysis / announcements
The Arcana
journal.
Notes from inside the build, practical thinking on decision intelligence, and reports designed to make complex choices easier to examine.
10 insights shown
What we do when a prediction is wrong
How we score predictions, examine our own misses, and record whether anyone acted on the warning. By @Lexi.
Read the analysis ↗Prediction Ledger: The Nobel verdicts and the next nine calls
Two Nobel hits, one miss, and nine new forecasts across markets, sport and world affairs. Includes a Tesla reporting-date correction.
Read the latest ledger ↗Prediction Ledger: The board got sharper
The late-evening ledger update: reconciled outcomes since September 28 and the latest forecast board.
Read the ledger ↗Prediction Ledger: The latest verdicts and the week ahead
The September 28 ledger update, with resolved forecasts and the next seven days’ prediction slate.
Read the ledger ↗Weekly Forecast Report: The first scores and the new board
Two hits, one miss, one void, and seven new forecasts. Updated September 23 using the original Treasury probability.
Read the report ↗Forecast Portfolio: Ten forecasts on Fed decision eve
Ten forecasts and scenarios to consider. Updated September 23 with sourced Fed and Treasury verdicts.
Read the report ↗Prediction Ledger: Eight forecasts on the record
Eight recorded forecasts, plus the cumulative scorecard: three hits, one miss and one disclosed void across the reports.
View scorecard ↗Why predictions should be open to examination
What makes a forward-looking assessment useful—and how confirmed, estimated, projected and unknown information should shape a decision.
Read the premise ↗Arcana joins DMZ Innisfil
Arcana enters the incubation program as the platform moves from an internal decision engine toward commercial use.
Inside the build ↗The Founding Circle opens
A small group of companies and leaders will test Arcana on real decisions and help shape the platform through practical use.
Explore the circle ↗From inside Arcana
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New reports and product announcements will be published here as Arcana develops.
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