Arcana Protocol · Forecast Portfolio
Ten forecasts on Fed decision eve — with the bond market now the sharp edge.
F1 and F3 resolved · 2 hits
Update · September 23, 2026. The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16. F1’s original probability remains 0.88; outcome yes (1); Brier score 0.0144.
Read the Federal Reserve statement ↗ · View the public scorecard, including hits and misses ↗
F3 also resolved YES: FRED DGS10 records 5.01% on September 16, above the 5% threshold. Original P = 0.72; Brier score = 0.0784. View FRED DGS10 ↗.
The September portfolio has 2 graded hits, 0 graded misses and 8 ungraded calls. Mean Brier score: 0.0464. Brier score = (probability − outcome)²; lower is better. A hit means the more likely outcome occurred. Two results do not establish forecasting skill. Read the September 21 weekly report, including the new miss and void ↗.
The forecast statements and probabilities below retain the September 15 snapshot; references to “tomorrow” refer to September 16. Planning commentary was revised into scenarios on September 23. Pre-outcome integrity has not been independently verified.
The macro chain has a new, sharper link since this morning. Oil at ~$108 pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5% — its highest in nearly two decades — as a weak 20-year bond auction and debt-risk worries drove a second straight equity selloff. Tomorrow the Fed hikes into that. The story is no longer just "oil → inflation → Fed"; it's now "oil → the bond market reprices US debt risk", which hits every rate-sensitive asset at once.
Rates, oil & the bond market
Largely priced in after hot August CPI; CME FedWatch near 87%. First hike since 2023.
Scenario to consider: If rates rise and guidance points to further tightening, floating-rate borrowing costs could remain elevated; compare that scenario with a pause or reversal.
Resolved 2026-09-16 · Hit · Brier 0.0144 · Federal Reserve · original benchmark CME ~87%
At ~$108 with Hormuz still throttled. A drop below $95 needs a ceasefire or fast demand destruction.
Scenario to consider: If energy prices stay elevated, fuel and freight costs could pressure margins; compare sustained high prices with a faster retreat.
Resolves 2026-10-31 · ICE Brent settlement
It just touched 5.03%, a 2007 high, on oil and debt-supply worries. With hikes landing and oil sticky, a re-test is the likely path.
Scenario to consider: If yields remain near or above 5%, refinancing costs could increase; consider how different rate paths affect borrowing assumptions.
Resolved YES on 2026-09-16 · Hit · Brier 0.0784 · FRED DGS10 · original deadline 2026-10-31
Energy shock + a rate hike + 5% yields is the classic contraction setup — but the consumer hasn't broken yet.
Scenario to consider: If demand contracts for two quarters, planned capacity could be underused; compare that case with stable or recovering demand in H1 2027.
Resolves ~2026-10-29 · BEA advance estimate
Markets, tech & policy
The "pace the frontier" selloff is still weighing on chips, offset by White House/Jensen pushback and structural demand. A true coin-flip, tilted slightly down by the ongoing risk-off tape.
Scenario to consider: If AI capital-spending guidance weakens at Q3 earnings, valuations and supplier demand could fall; consider the sensitivity of AI-related exposure.
Resolves 2026-12-31 · market data
Reported today as hitting IT-services firms (Cognizant, Infosys) hardest. Whether it survives to implementation as reported is genuinely uncertain.
Scenario to consider: If the proposed fee takes effect, H-1B-dependent hiring could become more expensive; consider the effects on staffing costs and timing.
Resolves 2026-11-30 · Federal Register / USCIS
Funding runs out Sept 30 and 2026 has already had two shutdowns over immigration. Held looser — thin signal on this week's negotiations.
Scenario to consider: If a shutdown begins, federal data, permits and contracts could be delayed; consider the implications for Q4 operating schedules.
Resolves 2026-10-01 · OMB / consensus reporting
The Senate just blocked the landmark bill today, sending Bitcoin lower. A near-term revival before year-end is the low-probability branch.
Scenario to consider: If legislation stalls, regulatory uncertainty could persist into 2027; consider how that would affect crypto-related business assumptions.
Resolves 2026-12-31 · US Senate record
The slowdown talk pressures capex, and OpenAI shelved its 2026 IPO — but the hyperscalers are unlikely to blink first this quarter. Flagged as analyst-adjudicated.
Scenario to consider: If a hyperscaler reduces spending guidance, data-center suppliers could face delayed orders; upcoming earnings may clarify that scenario.
Analyst-adjudicated · Resolves ~2026-11-15 · Q3 earnings vs rubric
Both sides dug in, transit still ~95% down. The low-probability branch — and the single highest-impact one if it flips, since it would unwind F2–F4 at once.
Scenario to consider: If Hormuz traffic recovers, energy and freight pressures could ease quickly; consider how that would change the linked inflation and rate scenarios.
Resolves 2026-12-31 · UKMTO / IEA transit data
Blind spots
- The bond market is now the transmission belt. With the 10Y at 5%, the risk isn't any single forecast — it's that a debt-supply scare reprices every rate-sensitive asset at once, independent of the Fed.
- F1–F4 are one correlated bet. A Hormuz de-escalation (F10) would unwind oil, yields, and the growth risk together. The diversification is smaller than ten rows suggests.
- Tomorrow's guidance, not the hike, moves the sheet. The hike is priced; Warsh's tone on how many more reprices F3, F4, and F5 in one afternoon.
- A shutdown blinds the data. F4 (GDP) and the inflation reads that drive the rate path go dark exactly when they matter if funding lapses Oct 1.
Ledger block
[
{"statement":"Fed raises target range 25bp at the Sep 16 2026 meeting","probability":0.88,
"resolves_on":"2026-09-16","adjudicator":"Federal Reserve","adjudication_type":"external"},
{"statement":"Brent crude stays above $95 through Oct 31 2026","probability":0.75,
"resolves_on":"2026-10-31","adjudicator":"ICE Brent settlement","adjudication_type":"external"},
{"statement":"US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 5% again before Oct 31 2026","probability":0.72,
"resolves_on":"2026-10-31","adjudicator":"FRED DGS10","adjudication_type":"external"},
{"statement":"US Q3 2026 advance real GDP prints negative","probability":0.38,
"resolves_on":"2026-10-29","adjudicator":"BEA advance estimate","adjudication_type":"external"},
{"statement":"Nvidia sets a new all-time closing high before 2026-12-31","probability":0.48,
"resolves_on":"2026-12-31","adjudicator":"Market data","adjudication_type":"external"},
{"statement":"The reported $100K H-1B visa fee takes effect before 2026-12-31","probability":0.45,
"resolves_on":"2026-11-30","adjudicator":"Federal Register / USCIS","adjudication_type":"external"},
{"statement":"A US federal govt shutdown of >=1 day begins on/after Oct 1 2026","probability":0.42,
"resolves_on":"2026-10-01","adjudicator":"OMB / consensus reporting","adjudication_type":"external"},
{"statement":"US Senate passes a crypto market-structure bill before 2026-12-31","probability":0.25,
"resolves_on":"2026-12-31","adjudicator":"US Senate record","adjudication_type":"external"},
{"statement":"A major hyperscaler trims AI-capex guidance on its Q3 2026 call","probability":0.25,
"resolves_on":"2026-11-15","adjudicator":"Q3 earnings calls vs rubric","adjudication_type":"analyst"},
{"statement":"Strait of Hormuz returns to >=50% pre-war transit before 2026-12-31","probability":0.15,
"resolves_on":"2026-12-31","adjudicator":"UKMTO / IEA","adjudication_type":"external"}
]